FX MORNING BRIEF
11/11/25
In the US, the Senate passed a bill on Monday to end the longest government shutdown in US history, with nearly all Republicans and eight Democrats supporting the deal. Markets seem to be in a ranging mood as of this morning, sentiment remains on however equities are range bound as we await for the NYSE open. The bill now moves to the House for approval before heading to President Trump for his signature.
Market Snapshot - 11/11/25
GBP
Sterling is holding relatively firm this morning despite softer-than-expected UK labour market data, which has seen unemployment climb to a four-year high. The release has pushed market pricing decisively toward a December rate cut, with short-end yields breaking below the 3.75% handle. However, the FX reaction has been notably contained — suggesting much of the negative sentiment toward the pound may already be priced in. Last week's relief rally reinforces this view and highlights the potential for short-term rebounds from key technical levels, particularly as mean reversion plays out.
USD
The dollar remains range-bound as markets weigh rising short-end Treasury yields against improving risk sentiment tied to the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown. While the DXY briefly tested the 100.00 handle, it failed to break higher, underlining persistent uncertainty around the greenback's direction. With sentiment capping further upside, we see scope for tactical bounces at key support levels, though any sustained USD strength is likely to remain limited until fresh macro data provides clearer direction.
JPY
The yen continues to face depreciation pressures, driven largely by sentiment rather than yield dynamics, as short-end yields remain range-bound while the long end stays elevated. Market focus is intensifying around the 155 and 160 levels in USD/JPY and GBP/JPY, where intervention fears could resurface. Last week's reportedly "successful" meeting in Japan between Takaichi and Trump has done little to arrest the yen's slide, and traders are likely to remain alert to potential policy signals from Tokyo as these critical thresholds approach.
AUD / NZD
Both antipodean currencies remain underpinned by improving risk appetite and favourable rate differentials. The rebound in equities and a subdued VIX continue to support AUD and NZD across the board. As long as broader sentiment holds steady and global growth expectations remain intact, we expect both currencies to stay bid — particularly against funding currencies — though gains may moderate near key resistance levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc is seeing limited movement, supported in part by gold's close above the 4,100 handle yesterday. However, the recovery in global risk sentiment — alongside headlines suggesting a possible resolution to the U.S. government shutdown — should act as a headwind for further CHF appreciation. Given this backdrop, CHF strength may be better expressed through selective crosses, particularly against low-yielders such as the JPY or NZD.
CAD
The loonie is finding solid support from both rising short-end yields and improving market sentiment. The rebound in crude oil prices adds an additional tailwind, with USOIL's recovery today likely to reinforce bullish momentum for CAD pairs. As risk appetite continues to improve, the outlook for the loonie remains constructive, particularly against the USD and JPY.
EUR
The euro appears poised for a gradual recovery this week, supported by stabilizing short-end yields just above the 2.00% mark. The relative calm in European data releases should help underpin EUR sentiment, with the rate differential backdrop also turning modestly supportive. For now, the pair remains in a quiet consolidation phase, though improved stability across broader risk assets should continue to lend mild support.
Author
Ethan M
G10 Macro FX Strategist
ofob@cognitoupdates.co.uk
Harry S
G10 Macro FX Strategist
vosk@cognitoupdates.co.uk
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Cognito Updates solely for informational purposes without regard to any particular user's objectives, financial situation, or needs. The information contained herein does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor should it be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any product, service, or financial instrument.
Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information provided is accurate and up to date at the time of publication; however, Cognito Updates makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Cognito Updates accepts no liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
Unless otherwise stated, any opinions, forecasts, or estimates expressed are those of the author(s) at the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in certain jurisdictions. Persons in possession of this publication are required to inform themselves of, and observe, any such restrictions.
Copyright and database rights protection apply to this publication. It may not be reproduced, distributed, or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of Cognito Updates. All rights reserved.
Prepared by Cognito Macro Research | 11 Nov 2025