MACROECONOMIC DATA REPORT
November 2025
This comprehensive macroeconomic data report provides institutional-grade analysis across key indicators that drive global markets. Our research synthesizes critical data points from risk sentiment metrics, Federal Reserve policy expectations, labor market dynamics, and sovereign bond markets to deliver actionable insights for informed decision-making.
Risk Sentiment Analysis
Current Market Positioning
Risk appetite remains constructive as equities continue to grind higher, supported by resilient corporate earnings and expectations for a soft landing. The VIX has compressed below the 15 handle, signaling complacency in equity volatility markets, while credit spreads remain tight across both investment-grade and high-yield segments.
Key Takeaway
Risk-on sentiment is dominating flows, with momentum indicators suggesting further upside potential. However, the low VIX reading warrants caution as positioning appears stretched, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp reversals should macro conditions deteriorate.
CME FedWatch & Rate Expectations
Fed Funds Futures Pricing
CME Fed Funds futures are pricing in a terminal rate of 3.75-4.00% by mid-2026, with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady through Q1 2026 before beginning a gradual easing cycle. The implied probability of a rate cut at the December 2025 meeting stands at 68%, reflecting growing confidence that inflation is returning to target.
Implied Rate Path (Next 12 Months)
Market Implications
The Fed's data-dependent approach keeps rate volatility elevated. Current pricing suggests markets have fully absorbed recent inflation prints and are positioning for a dovish pivot. Any upside surprise in core PCE or employment data could trigger a rapid repricing of the curve.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Labor Market Health
The October employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by 185,000, slightly above consensus expectations of 175,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, while average hourly earnings grew 4.1% year-over-year, indicating wage pressures remain persistent but moderating. The labor force participation rate ticked up to 63.3%, suggesting continued labor supply improvements.
Sectoral Breakdown (Monthly Change)
Assessment
The labor market continues to demonstrate resilience with solid job creation and stable unemployment. The modest deceleration in wage growth is a positive signal for the Fed's inflation fight, while rising participation suggests supply-side improvements. Sectoral breadth remains healthy across services, supporting the soft-landing narrative.
Government Yields & Bond Markets
Treasury Yield Curve Analysis
The U.S. Treasury curve has steepened modestly over the past month, with 2-year yields pulling back from recent highs as rate cut expectations firm. The 2s10s spread has widened to +35 basis points, moving further into positive territory and signaling improved growth expectations. Real yields remain elevated, providing support for the dollar while weighing on gold and duration-sensitive assets.
Key Spread Metrics
Global Sovereign Yields
Market Outlook
The steepening curve reflects improving growth optimism and declining recession fears, while persistent real yield elevation continues to support USD strength. European yields remain anchored by ECB dovishness, widening rate differentials that favor USD crosses. Watch for shifts in long-end dynamics as fiscal concerns and term premium adjustments come into focus.
Research Team
Ethan M
Head of Macro Research
ofob@cognitoupdates.co.uk
Harry S
Senior Rates Strategist
vosk@cognitoupdates.co.uk
Disclaimer
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Prepared by Cognito Macro Research | November 2025